This starts as a tight, closed board contest where it looks like Elise might die a death of a thousand cuts, turns into an exciting, close late game, and ends with a surprising move which Elise calculates correctly. Early on, Elise has trouble making good scoring plays, and Quackle skillfully keeps the board closed. Elise finally draws the first blank and is able to pull back into the game. Quackle attempts, with GINNY O9, to make a spot for its X at N10. Elise recognizes these kinds of plays, however, and determines that Quackle is more likely than chance to hold the X. The blocking move BI N10 is a game-saver for Elise. The critical move, however, of the game is move 28. Elise holds ADERSTV. There is one tile left in the bag; it is one of EGIINOR?. There are two reasonable moves here: to play STARVED 2B for 93 points, or to pass your turn. The reason you may want to pass here is that, if you play the bingo, your opponent has a good chance to make a big bingo play out (there is a blank unseen) and leave you with a loss. It turns out that if Elise passes the turn, then Elise loses if the tile in the bag is GIIO and wins if the tile in the bag is ENR?. If Elise plays STARVED 2B 93, Elise wins if the tile in the bag is GN?, but loses if the tile is IIEOR. So, if the tile in the bag is entirely up to chance, then passing a turn wins 50% of the time, compared to only 38% of the time for the 93-point STARVED 2B. Elise, however, has the ability to make educated guesses about its opponent's rack distribution. It thinks that, after ILEA C10, Quackle was more likely than chance to have any of the tiles EIO left on its rack, and less likely than chance to have any of GNR? left on its rack. (This turns out to be mostly correct, as Quackle held EIR.) As a result of this guess, Elise thinks passing its turn gives a win probability of about 57%, compared to 47% for playing STARVED 2B. Both probabilities improve because Elise thinks it is likely that Quackle holds at least one of the Is (therefore I is less likely to be the last tile in the bag.) Back

Move#	Player	Rack	Move	Sq	Leave	Score	Total	Notes
1	Quackle	aaceqst	QAT	8H	[aces]	24	24
2	Elise pre-release	bdflmou	FUB	7I	[dlmo]	23	23	7-ply winprob simulation (1200), -35.51 / 43.6%
3	Quackle	aacepsu	PACA	6J	[esu]	29	53
4	Elise pre-release	adlmowz	WAB	K5	[adlmoz]	16	39	7-ply winprob simulation (800), -29.02 / 45.7%
5	Quackle	ceiossu	SOU	4K	[ceis]	15	68
6	Elise pre-release	adglmoz	DUMA	M3	[agloz]	14	53	7-ply winprob simulation (1280), -32.43 / 44.5%
7	Quackle	ceeimns	SWABS	K4	[ceeimn]	23	91
8	Elise pre-release	aglovz?	PUTZ	J6	[aglov?]	15	68	7-ply winprob simulation (720), -18.97 / 50.5%
9	Quackle	cdeeimn	PUTZED	J6	[ceimn]	20	111
10	Elise pre-release	agllov?	OVAL	K11	[gl?]	20	88	7-ply winprob simulation (2480), -24.60 / 47.6%
11	Quackle	ceeimnu	QUINCE	H8	[em]	20	131
12	Elise pre-release	egilow?	VOW	12K	[egil?]	18	106	7-ply winprob simulation (1520), -20.71 / 49.4%
13	Quackle	deejmnp	JAPE	13J	[demn]	40	171
14	Elise pre-release	eghiil?	HI	G10	[egil?]	12	118	7-ply winprob simulation (1680), -48.83 / 35.1%
15	Quackle	demnnrr	REND	F11	[mnr]	12	183
16	Elise pre-release	egiklu?	KUE	N1	[gil?]	17	135	7-ply winprob simulation (2320), -44.54 / 37.4%
17	Quackle	mnoorrt	ROT	N13	[mnor]	20	203
18	Elise pre-release	egilrt?	GLIsTER	15C		79	214	7-ply winprob simulation (1520), -31.93 / 41.7%
19	Quackle	agmnnor	MAKO	1L	[gnnr]	39	242
20	Elise pre-release	bhiostt	SHOTT	15K	[bit]	44	258	7-ply winprob simulation (960), -22.47 / 42.5%
21	Quackle	ginnrxy	GINNY	O9	[rx]	28	270
22	Elise pre-release	beefiit	BI	N10	[eefit]	22	280	7-ply winprob simulation (2720), -17.19 / 40.5%
23	Quackle	anortxy	ONYX	O1	[aort]	31	301
24	Elise pre-release	eeefist	FEE	2J	[eist]	18	298	7-ply winprob simulation (1680), -8.26 / 43.1%
25	Quackle	aalorrt	RATO	1G	[alr]	17	318
26	Elise pre-release	aeeilst	ILEAL	D11	[est]	10	308	7-ply winprob simulation (1760), -5.83 / 51.3%
27	Quackle	aeeiilr	ILEA	C10	[eir]	16	334
28	Elise pre-release	aderstv	(Pass)	---	[aderstv]	0	308	7-ply winprob simulation (1360), +19.83 / 57.2%
29	Quackle	egiior?	RIGOR	G1	[ei?]	8	342
30	Elise pre-release	aderstv	ADVERTS	B4		75	383

Quackle: 339, Elise pre-release: 386