This starts as a tight, closed board contest where it looks like Elise might die a death of a thousand cuts, turns into an exciting, close late game, and ends with a surprising move which Elise calculates correctly.

Early on, Elise has trouble making good scoring plays, and Quackle skillfully keeps the board closed. Elise finally draws the first blank and is able to pull back into the game.

Quackle attempts, with GINNY O9, to make a spot for its X at N10. Elise recognizes these kinds of plays, however, and determines that Quackle is more likely than chance to hold the X. The blocking move BI N10 is a game-saver for Elise.

The critical move, however, of the game is move 28. Elise holds ADERSTV. There is one tile left in the bag; it is one of EGIINOR?. There are two reasonable moves here: to play STARVED 2B for 93 points, or to pass your turn. The reason you may want to pass here is that, if you play the bingo, your opponent has a good chance to make a big bingo play out (there is a blank unseen) and leave you with a loss. It turns out that if Elise passes the turn, then Elise loses if the tile in the bag is GIIO and wins if the tile in the bag is ENR?. If Elise plays STARVED 2B 93, Elise wins if the tile in the bag is GN?, but loses if the tile is IIEOR.

So, if the tile in the bag is entirely up to chance, then passing a turn wins 50% of the time, compared to only 38% of the time for the 93-point STARVED 2B. Elise, however, has the ability to make educated guesses about its opponent's rack distribution. It thinks that, after ILEA C10, Quackle was more likely than chance to have any of the tiles EIO left on its rack, and less likely than chance to have any of GNR? left on its rack. (This turns out to be mostly correct, as Quackle held EIR.) As a result of this guess, Elise thinks passing its turn gives a win probability of about 57%, compared to 47% for playing STARVED 2B. Both probabilities improve because Elise thinks it is likely that Quackle holds at least one of the Is (therefore I is less likely to be the last tile in the bag.)

Back

Move#PlayerRackMoveSqLeaveScoreTotalNotes
1Quackle
aaceqst
QAT8H
[aces]
2424
2Elise pre-release
bdflmou
FUB7I
[dlmo]
23237-ply winprob simulation (1200), -35.51 / 43.6%
3Quackle
aacepsu
PACA6J
[esu]
2953
4Elise pre-release
adlmowz
WABK5
[adlmoz]
16397-ply winprob simulation (800), -29.02 / 45.7%
5Quackle
ceiossu
SOU4K
[ceis]
1568
6Elise pre-release
adglmoz
DUMAM3
[agloz]
14537-ply winprob simulation (1280), -32.43 / 44.5%
7Quackle
ceeimns
SWABSK4
[ceeimn]
2391
8Elise pre-release
aglovz?
PUTZJ6
[aglov?]
15687-ply winprob simulation (720), -18.97 / 50.5%
9Quackle
cdeeimn
PUTZEDJ6
[ceimn]
20111
10Elise pre-release
agllov?
OVALK11
[gl?]
20887-ply winprob simulation (2480), -24.60 / 47.6%
11Quackle
ceeimnu
QUINCEH8
[em]
20131
12Elise pre-release
egilow?
VOW12K
[egil?]
181067-ply winprob simulation (1520), -20.71 / 49.4%
13Quackle
deejmnp
JAPE13J
[demn]
40171
14Elise pre-release
eghiil?
HIG10
[egil?]
121187-ply winprob simulation (1680), -48.83 / 35.1%
15Quackle
demnnrr
RENDF11
[mnr]
12183
16Elise pre-release
egiklu?
KUEN1
[gil?]
171357-ply winprob simulation (2320), -44.54 / 37.4%
17Quackle
mnoorrt
ROTN13
[mnor]
20203
18Elise pre-release
egilrt?
GLIsTER15C
792147-ply winprob simulation (1520), -31.93 / 41.7%
19Quackle
agmnnor
MAKO1L
[gnnr]
39242
20Elise pre-release
bhiostt
SHOTT15K
[bit]
442587-ply winprob simulation (960), -22.47 / 42.5%
21Quackle
ginnrxy
GINNYO9
[rx]
28270
22Elise pre-release
beefiit
BIN10
[eefit]
222807-ply winprob simulation (2720), -17.19 / 40.5%
23Quackle
anortxy
ONYXO1
[aort]
31301
24Elise pre-release
eeefist
FEE2J
[eist]
182987-ply winprob simulation (1680), -8.26 / 43.1%
25Quackle
aalorrt
RATO1G
[alr]
17318
26Elise pre-release
aeeilst
ILEALD11
[est]
103087-ply winprob simulation (1760), -5.83 / 51.3%
27Quackle
aeeiilr
ILEAC10
[eir]
16334
28Elise pre-release
aderstv
(Pass)---
[aderstv]
03087-ply winprob simulation (1360), +19.83 / 57.2%
29Quackle
egiior?
RIGORG1
[ei?]
8342
30Elise pre-release
aderstv
ADVERTSB4
75383

Quackle: 339, Elise pre-release: 386